MODELING LONG-TERM EFFECTIVENESS OF PREVENTION OF HARMFUL AND HAZARDOUS ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION BASED ON SCREENING AND BRIEF INTERVENTION

Abstract

Based on the results of the screening of the 3442 persons Marcov-cohort model was used to estimate results of the preventive program based on the methodology of screening and brief intervention (SBI) to prevent harmful and hazardous alcohol consumption. It is found, that in case of pessimistic scenario introduction of SBI in Russian Federation will be associated with avoidance of 18 716 disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) (95% CI = 17 61119 819), in case of more optimistic scenario effectiveness of SBI increase to 564 618 DALY (95% CI = 539 910589 327). This means that economical effect will be from 5,92 rubles per each ruble invested in the SBI (95% CI = 5,57-6,27 rubles) to 179 rubles (95% CI = 171-186 rubles). Comparison to other preventive programs show, that SBI is a cost-effective intervention independent of the pessimistic or optimistic scenario used.