Abstract

In this paper we show that persistence and switching of trends are phenomena that appear in most long-lived stock return series. We model stock returns using a family of models based on hidden Markov models with duration-dependent transition probabilities. Trends are correlated so that aggregates such as indexes exhibit the same persistence and switching behavior as single stocks themselves. Hidden Markov models can thus explain medium-term momentum.

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.