Abstract
BackgroundInfectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Mathematical and simulation models are often used to simulate FAD outbreaks and best practices for control. However, simulation outcomes are sensitive to the population structure used. Within Canada, access to individual swine farm population data with which to parameterize models is a challenge because of privacy concerns. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models.ResultsWe developed a swine population model based on the factors such as facilities supporting farm infrastructure, land availability, zoning and local regulations, and natural geographic barriers that could affect swine farming in Ontario. Assigned farm locations were equal to the swine farm density described in the 2011 Canadian Census of Agriculture. Farms were then randomly assigned to farm types proportional to the existing swine herd types. We compared the swine population models with a known database of swine farm locations in Ontario and found that the modeled population was representative of farm locations with a high accuracy (AUC: 0.91, Standard deviation: 0.02) suggesting that our algorithm generated a reasonable approximation of farm locations in Ontario.ConclusionIn the absence of a readily accessible dataset providing details of the relative locations of swine farms in Ontario, development of a model livestock population that captures key characteristics of the true population structure while protecting privacy concerns is an important methodological advancement. This methodology will be useful for individuals interested in modeling the spread of pathogens between farms across a landscape and using these models to evaluate disease control strategies.
Highlights
Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences
Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern in terms of animal health and welfare and due to the anticipated economic losses that would arise as a result of a FAD incursion in Ontario [2]
When comparing model algorithms to the true pig farming locations, we used the higher threshold cut-off identified between two distinct approaches: True Skill Statistics and Kappa Statistics
Summary
Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and health consequences. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern. Our objective was to develop a methodology to model the farmed swine population in Ontario, Canada that could represent the existing population structure and improve the efficacy of simulation models. Canada exported more than one million tons of pork valued at $2.9 billion to more than 80 countries and was ranked as the fifth largest pork exporter in the Infectious diseases in farmed animals have economic, social, and animal health consequences as well a possible human health consequences [6]. Foreign animal diseases (FAD) of swine are of significant concern in terms of animal health and welfare and due to the anticipated economic losses that would arise as a result of a FAD incursion in Ontario [2]. Because FAD introductions are rare events especially in more developed countries with rigorous importation regulations on animals and animal products, mathematical and epidemiological
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