Abstract
Lilac ‘Red Rothomagensis’ is used as indicator plant in phenological studies in the Northeastern United States. Geophysical variables — latitude, longitude, elevation- were used in addition to the date of one phenophase (first leaf) to predict the date of subsequent phenophases (first flowers, full bloom) of the indicator plant. In 5 years out of 7 the mean difference in the study area between actual and predicted dates was no larger than 2 days with standard deviations between 4 and 6 days. Little consistency existed from year to year in overestimation or underestimation at most observation sites.
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