Modeling Level 2 Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrieval Error Over Complex Terrain Using a Nonparametric Statistical Technique

Abstract

The representation of precipitation variability over mountainous regions by ground-based sensors is an open problem in hydrometeorological applications that necessitates the use of satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs). An extended network of ground-based X-band radar (GR) deployments over complex terrain areas, including the northeastern Italian Alps, North Carolina, Olympic Mountain, and the southern tip of Vancouver Island, is used in this study as a benchmark rainfall data set for error characterization and modeling of Level 2 PMW retrievals (Goddard profiling (GPROF) V05 algorithm) for the different sensors: the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GMI), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). Matchups of Level 2 PMW/GR rainfall are extracted based on a matching methodology that identifies GR volume scans with PMW overpasses, and scales GR parameters to the satellite products’ nominal spatial resolution. The error model is the nonparametric machine learning tree-based quantile regression forest (QRF), which we developed using matchups of PMW/GR rainfall data from the different study areas. Validation of the error model is conducted using three cross-validation techniques: the k-fold, leave-one region out, and enforced. All validations showed that the error model-based corrections can significantly reduce both the mean relative error and the random component of PMW products. Moreover, the error reduction demonstrated with the leave-one region out cross-validation technique indicated that the error model is transferable among complex terrain regions. Algorithm developers may find this error model useful to integrate in the Level 3 products.