Abstract
Modeling landscape use (i.e., estimating the probability or relative probability of use, occurrence, or selection in a given area and time) by ungulates is an increasingly common practice in research and management. Models of occupancy, distribution, movement, habitat use, and resource selection are formal approaches by which landscape use has been characterized and results published for a myriad of ungulate species across the world. Application of these models has been aided by a growing volume of data on animal locations and model covariates, and the ease of modeling with automated software and high-capacity computers. Models of landscape use are particularly noteworthy in their potential to estimate use at multiple spatial and temporal scales, to characterize individual and population distributions, and to predict spatiotemporal responses to environmental change. Despite these advantages, consideration of ecological processes can be secondary or forgotten. Models without a strong ecological foundation may perform well in case studies (one time, one place) but fail to advance our understanding of a species’ habitat requirements and response to habitat change across a broad inference space that is both ecologically meaningful and of high utility for management. In response, we identify and describe criteria, synthesized from the ecological literature, of direct relevance to modeling landscape use for advancing the ecological understanding and effective management of ungulates. Criteria include the use of (1) a knowledge coproduction framework for scientist-manager collaborations; (2) an explicit inference space with supporting replication for broad inference; (3) process covariates and their ecological scaling to address habitat requirements; (4) ecologically-plausible sets of competing models in development and selection; (5) model evaluation to address objectives and hypotheses of ecological importance; (6) assessment of relationships with animal and population performance; and (7) reliable interpretations for ecological understanding and management uses. Contemporary modeling of landscape use has been challenged by large, disparate data sources and a growing emphasis on statistical methods. However, advances in knowledge and conservation of ungulates based on tenets of ecology, management, and inference are achievable with careful consideration of these criteria.
Highlights
Modeling landscape use, based on estimates of occupancy (Royle et al, 2012), distributions (Jarnevich et al, 2015), movement (Horne et al, 2007), frequency of use (Nielson and Sawyer, 2013), or resource selection (Boyce et al, 2002), is a common practice in contemporary ungulate research and management
Model development and selection based on ecological rationale, such as with model suites composed of covariates related to energy gain, conservation, or loss, explicitly addresses habitat requirements of a species, providing a causal basis for patterns of landscape use and credible uses in management
Without a sound ecological and management framework, contemporary modeling of landscape use may continue to rely on “convenience sampling,” statistical methods, and case studies lacking the spatial and temporal replication needed for broad inference
Summary
Modeling landscape use, based on estimates of occupancy (Royle et al, 2012), distributions (Jarnevich et al, 2015), movement (Horne et al, 2007), frequency of use (Nielson and Sawyer, 2013), or resource selection (Boyce et al, 2002), is a common practice in contemporary ungulate research and management. Coproduction as applied to landscapeuse modeling involves collaboration in all phases of the scientific process: defining objectives and inference space, describing ecological and management hypotheses for testing, identifying analysis scales and potential covariates, developing and implementing appropriate modeling methods, interpreting results, and careful inference (Table 1 and Figure 1).
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