Abstract
Continuous urban expansion worldwide has resulted in significant wetland degradation and loss. A limited number of studies have addressed the coupling of wetland and urban dynamics, but this relationship remains unclear. In this study, a time-varying methodology of predicting wetland distribution was developed to support decision-making. The novelty of the methodology is its ability to dynamically simulate wetland shrinkage together with urban expansion and reveal conflicts and potential tradeoffs under different scenarios. The developed methodology consists of three modules: a historical change detection of wetland and urban areas module, a spatial urban sprawl simulation and forecasting module that can accommodate different development priorities, and a wetland distribution module with time-varying logistic regression. The methodology was applied and tested in the Tonghu Wetland as a case study. The wetland and urban extents presented a spatially intersecting shift, where wetlands lost more than 40% of their area from 1977 to 2017, while urban areas expanded by 10-fold, threatening wetlands. The increase in the relative importance metric of the time-varying regression model indicated an enhanced influence of urban expansion on the wetland. An accuracy assessment validated a robust statistical result and a good visual fit between spatially distributed wetland occurrence probabilities and the actual distribution of wetland. Incorporating the new variable of urban expansion improved modeling performance and, particularly, realized a greater ability to predict potential wetland loss than provided by the traditional method. Future wetland loss probabilities were visualized under different scenarios. The historical trend scenario predicted continuously expanding urban growth and wetland shrinkage to 2030. However, a specific urban development strategy scenario was designed interactively to control the potential wetland loss. Consideration of such scenarios can facilitate identifying tradeoffs to support wetland conservation.
Highlights
Wetlands are considered unique and important ecosystems, supplying useful products, such as peat and food, and performing valuable ecosystem services, such as biodiversity support, water purification, runoff regulation, flood abatement, and carbon storage [1]
The third section of this paper presents the results of the time-varying wetland shrinkage and urban expansion (TVWSUE) execution and performance for the historical wetland shrinkage and urban expansion, as well as future forecasts of shrinkage and expansion under scenario settings
The TVWSUE methodology, consisting of three modules, was developed in this study, which dynamically predicted wetland distribution probabilities intersecting with urban expansion by a time-varying logistic regression model
Summary
Wetlands are considered unique and important ecosystems, supplying useful products, such as peat and food, and performing valuable ecosystem services, such as biodiversity support, water purification, runoff regulation, flood abatement, and carbon storage [1]. The key services provided by wetlands are impaired when wetlands are degraded or lost [5]. This causes loss of hydrological function [6], aggravates water shortage [7], exacerbates flood risks under climate change [8], weakens the carbon sink and climate stabilizer function [9], leads to habitat fragmentation and loss of fish and wildlife protection, and further results in a decline in species [10]. Wetland and other land-use types compete with one another, and modeling their dynamics is necessary to support wetland conservation and restoration
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