Modeling Impact of Cold Load Pickup on Transformer Aging Using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

Abstract

Thermostatically controlled devices, such as air conditioners, heaters, and heat pumps may cause cold load pickup (CLPU) problems after a prolonged blackout. This causes an increased load on the power components in the electrical grid. The result is unpredictable aging and increased risk of failure. Quantifying this risk is crucial for efficient asset management for cost-intensive components such as the transformer. This paper presents a new approach to model the loading profile of a CLPU using stochastic differential equations. The realization of the loading profile is used to determine the aging of a transformer. Two models for the deterioration of transformer solid insulation represent the loss of life due to the CLPU. A comparison between two models for the aging of the solid insulation in the transformer is made in a case study. Due to the stochastic behavior of the load, there is a probability for loading the transformer above the recommended ratings, and this probability is estimated with Monte Carlo simulations.