Modeling illegal pedestrian crossing behaviors at unmarked mid-block roadway based on extended decision field theory

Abstract

There is a huge risk of accidents when pedestrians jaywalk across the road. It is a difficult problem to predict and reduce the behavior of jaywalking. This paper proposes a dynamic decision model of jaywalking for pedestrians based on the extended decision field theory. The model connects pedestrians’ perceptions in three dimensions such as efficiency, safety, and fairness with the dynamic traffic environment, and shows the evolution of pedestrians’ decision-making. The tester’s decision data is collected through a questionnaire survey for the purpose of model parameter estimation and validity testing. The established model is used to analyze the pedestrian’s behavior of jaywalking. The results show that the preference of pedestrians for jaywalking is inversely proportional to the traffic density. As the preference threshold increases, the probability of pedestrians choosing to jaywalk gradually decreases. For the distance between the site of jaywalking and the bus stop, the probability of jaywalking basically follows a normal distribution. The average distance gradually increases, with the increase of the car arrival rate. Additionally, location of the crosswalk has a great impact on the jaywalking behaviors. The potential application of this model is that it can help the traffic management department to predict the probability distribution of jaywalking events in the road network, which is conducive to the traffic management department to optimize the traffic infrastructure settings of potential road sections, and take effective regulatory measures to reduce the occurrence of jaywalkers.