Modeling hydrological processes under Multi-Model projections of climate change in a cold region of Hokkaido, Japan

Abstract

Local hydrological systems are highly sensitive to global warming, especially in cold-climate-dominated basins. The integrated climate-hydrological model is a powerful tool to analyze and predict such effects. However, modeling hydrological processes contains considerable uncertainty in cold areas due to the complex dynamics of freeze–thaw cycles and requirements of lot inputs data. Here, we developed a fast and simple approach to modify the soil temperature module in soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in a cold region of the Ishikari River basin (IRB), Hokkaido, Japan. Water balance components and sediment yield simulations were explored by the modified SWAT model, outperforming the original SWAT model by PBIAS less than 15 % and NSE higher than 0.60 in monthly streamflow and sediment yield during both calibration (2011–2015) and validation phases (2016–2019). The future prediction was integrated with future climate datasets under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) derived from two Global Circulation Models (GCMs), in two future stages (2045–2069 and 2075–2099) with relative to the baseline stage (1990–2014). The varying climate with warmer temperatures (+3.05℃) and less precipitation (-7%) in the future would lead to that evapotranspiration (ET, 67 %) increased. Water yield (WY, −9%), surface runoff (SURQ, −18 %), groundwater flow (GWQ, −10 %), lateral flow (LATQ, −7%), percolation (PERC, −10 %), streamflow (-7%) and sediment yield (-14 %) decreased across the whole basin. However, due to climatic spatial variation, at the subbasin scale, hydrological components (e.g., WY, GWQ, LATQ, and PERC) would increase in the northern region, at the same time, SURQ and ET rise significantly in the central and southern areas. Our findings could offer evidence for future water and soil protection policymaking across the IRB.