Modeling hydrochory effects on the Tunisian island populations of Pancratium maritimum L. using colored Petri nets

Abstract

Hydrochory, the seed dispersal by water, is a strategy used by many aquatic and some terrestrial plants to move into areas appropriate for establishment. In this paper we model the hydrochory effects on the Tunisian island populations of Pancratium maritimum L. using colored Petri nets. Nineteen Tunisian coastal sites were considered including fourteen mainland and five island sites. The model was simulated for 400 thousand Atlantic Tunisian Current cycles (years). Snapshots of the island population’s genetic makeup were taken for 50, 200 and 400 thousand years. The evolution of the obtained dendrograms showed a clear divide between the northern and southern island populations according to their estimated genetic make-up for the considered simulation durations.Hydrochory is not only with important ecological consequences, such as maintaining the populations of P. maritimum but also it may move species into areas appropriate for establishment. In this context, in situ and ex situ conservation measures of P. maritimum populations should be adopted very fast.