Modeling Human Performance in Two Player Zero Sum Games Using Kelly Criterion

Abstract

The paper presents a new way of modeling the human performance in two player games using a rating system based on Kelly Criterion which is often utilized for gambling and financial engineering. The advantage of the proposed system is the ability to assess playing strength based on both the final outcome of the game and the style of play. The last aspect of the rating assessment system is novel compared to the rating systems developed so far (like ELO, Bradley-Terry, etc.). Another advantage of the proposed method is the tackling of the problem of drawn games. To the very best authors knowledge the approach presented below is a relatively new look at the problem of playing strength assessment based on probability theory. The paper presents and discusses few illustrative examples.