Modeling human migration across spatial scales in Colombia.

Amir S Siraj,Andrew J Tatem,Alessandro Sorichetta,T Alex Perkins,Guido España

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0232702

Amir S Siraj, Andrew J Tatem + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232702

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Abstract

Human mobility, both short and long term, are important considerations in the study of numerous systems. Economic and technological advances have led to a more interconnected global community, further increasing the need for considerations of human mobility. While data on human mobility are better recorded in many developed countries, availability of such data remains limited in many low- and middle-income countries around the world, particularly at the fine temporal and spatial scales required by many applications. In this study, we used 5-year census-based internal migration microdata for 32 departments in Colombia (i.e., Admin-1 level) to develop a novel spatial interaction modeling approach for estimating migration, at a finer spatial scale, among the 1,122 municipalities in the country (i.e., Admin-2 level). Our modeling approach addresses a significant lack of migration data at administrative unit levels finer than those at which migration data are typically recorded. Due to the widespread availability of census-based migration microdata at the Admin-1 level, our modeling approach opens up for the possibilities of modeling migration patterns at Admin-2 and Admin-3 levels across many other countries where such data are currently lacking.

Highlights

Human mobility, both short- and long-term, are increasingly recognized as important drivers for many processes of societal importance including demographics, economics, regional development, and epidemiology
We developed a novel spatial interaction modeling approach for Colombia using previously identified economic, socio-demographic and geographic factors including the regional equivalent of the gross domestic product, relative and absolute population size values, proportion of urban population, geographic contiguity of locations, and distance between locations
Our estimated department level migration flows based on the fine-scale model demonstrated a good agreement with the observed department level migration flows extracted from the 2005 census (Figs 4–6)

Summary

Introduction

Both short- and long-term, are increasingly recognized as important drivers for many processes of societal importance including demographics, economics, regional development, and epidemiology. Along with births and deaths, determine population dynamics at both national and sub-national scales [1]. Macro- and micro-level economic studies have identified migration as a driver of labor flow [2], while human movement, along with movement of goods and ideas, has driven economic integration and development across regions [3,4]. Urban and regional development plans seek to meet growing demands for infrastructure and services with the aim of accommodating the movement of people and goods to new expansion regions [5]. As people move from place to place, they carry a multitude of infectious agents with them, enhancing the potential for increased disease transmission and enabling diseases to spread into new regions [6,7].

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Discussion

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