Modeling hay fever risk factors caused by pollen from Ambrosia spp. using pollen load mapping in Ukraine

Victoria Rodinkova,Olena Toziuk,Oleh Yermishev,Olena Palamarchuk

doi:10.5586/aa.1742

Abstract

The paper provides a simulation of the occurrence of Ambrosia pollen in Ukraine both in terms of a determination of the regions with high pollen concentrations and the time when the high pollen load occurs. Simulation was performed using the SILAM system and the following pollen mapping using the Grid Analysis and Display System. Simulation results were compared with the aerobiological data available from six monitoring stations in Ukraine. A decrease in the concentrations of Ambrosia pollen, the duration of the Ambrosia season, and patient exposure to the Ambrosia pollen were apparent from SE to NW of Ukraine. A close correlation between the modeled and actually registered pollen concentration values and ragweed pollen release periods was observed in all the cities for which the Ambrosia pollen monitoring data had been collected. Further investigations are required to provide accurate forecasts for other types of airborne allergens.

Highlights

Over the last 50 years, there has been a steady increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases in industrialized areas
The analysis of the ragweed pollen release season in Ukraine revealed that Ambrosia releases the pollen from the mid-July to the end of October, with peak intensity from mid-August to mid-September (Fig. 1)
Based on the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) simulation, a ragweed season map was created showing the total seasonal pollen load to which the population of Ukraine is exposed. (Fig. 3). This is the first map that shows the aero-palynological parameters of the Ambrosia pollen release season and the potential impact on human health in Ukraine

Summary

Introduction

Over the last 50 years, there has been a steady increase in the prevalence of allergic diseases in industrialized areas. Among adults of all ages, allergic diseases, including asthma, are the fifth most common chronic disease in the USA, whilst among children under 18 years old, they rank third [1]. Allergy affects 20%, or more than 150 million, of the European population, being the most frequent chronic complaint [2]. 40–50% of children of school age are estimated to be sensitized to one or more common allergens [4]. In 2012, respiratory allergies in the past 12 months were reported in 10.6% or 7.8 million children in the USA [5]

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Conclusion