Modeling habitat suitability of range plant species using random forest method in arid mountainous rangelands

Abstract

Mountainous rangelands play a pivotal role in providing forage resources for livestock, particularly in summer, and maintaining ecological balance. This study aimed to identify environmental variables affecting range plant species distribution, ecological analysis of the relationship between these variables and the distribution of plants, and to model and map the plant habitats suitability by the Random Forest Method (RFM) in rangelands of the Taftan Mountain, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, southeastern Iran. In order to determine the environmental variables and estimate the potential distribution of plant species, the presence points of plants were recorded by using systematic random sampling method (90 points of presence) and soils were sampled in 5 habitats by random method in 0–30 and 30–60 cm depths. The layers of environmental variables were prepared using the Kriging interpolation method and Geographic Information System facilities. The distribution of the plant habitats was finally modelled and mapped by the RFM. Continuous maps of the habitat suitability were converted to binary maps using Youden Index (J) in order to evaluate the accuracy of the RFM in estimation of the distribution of species potential habitat. Based on the values of the area under curve (AUC) statistics, accuracy of predictive models of all habitats was in good level. Investigating the agreement between the predicted map, generated by each model, and actual maps, generated from fieldmeasured data, of the plant habitats, was at a high level for all habitats, except for Amygdalus scoparia habitat. This study concluded that the RFM is a robust model to analyze the relationships between the distribution of plant species and environmental variables as well as to prepare potential distribution maps of plant habitats that are of higher priority for conservation on the local scale in arid mountainous rangelands.