Modeling Future Heat-Related Vulnerability for Houston, Texas

Abstract

Modeling Future Heat-Related Vulnerability for Houston, TexasAbstract Number:2460 Kathryn Conlon*, Andrew Monaghan, Mary Hayden, and Olga Wilhelmi Kathryn Conlon* National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Andrew Monaghan National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , Mary Hayden National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author , and Olga Wilhelmi National Center for Atmospheric Research, United States, E-mail Address: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author AbstractExtreme heat events pose current and future threats to human health in the United States (U.S.). Climate models suggest that large U.S. urban populations will disproportionately experience extreme heat, in part due to the urban heat island (UHI) observed in metropolitan areas. In Houston, Texas, a southern U.S. city currently experiencing trends of increasing populations, changing demographics and urban sprawl, a changing UHI – which is substantially influenced by urban morphology and vegetation – poses a potential challenge to public health officials interested in reducing exposure to extreme heat. While there has been much research on the relationship between extreme heat and human health, most analyses and findings focus on present-day vulnerability. Recent regional climate simulations performed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggest that the number of ‘high heat stress’ days and nights will more than double by mid- century, raising the potential for substantially increased vulnerability. Building from present-day heat-related vulnerability research, we have developed a methodology that integrates socioeconomic and environmental indicators to assess the relative risk of extreme heat-related mortality at the neighborhood level in the Houston metropolitan area. We use a unique dataset that contains parcel-level present and future (2040) land use types to characterize the natural and built environment in metropolitan Houston. High- resolution future climate and land use scenarios are used to model the UHI in Houston. This presentation will explore how projected changes in climate and the built environment that result from long-term city planning policy may alter risk for extreme heat mortality in Houston, Texas by the mid-21st century.