Modeling Framework to Evaluate Vaccine Strategies against the COVID-19 Pandemic

Donovan Guttieres,Anthony J Sinskey,Stacy L Springs

doi:10.3390/systems9010004

Donovan Guttieres, Anthony J Sinskey + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9010004

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Journal: Systems	Publication Date: Jan 13, 2021
Citations: 12	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, with an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 1%, has spread to all corners of the globe and infected millions of people. While vaccination is essential to protect against the virus and halt community transmission, rapidly making and delivering safe and efficacious vaccines presents unique development, manufacturing, supply chain, delivery, and post-market surveillance challenges. Despite the large number of vaccines in or entering the clinic, it is unclear how many candidates will meet regulatory requirements and which vaccine strategy will most effectively lead to sustained, population-wide immunity. Interviews with experts from biopharmaceutical companies, regulatory and multilateral organizations, non-profit foundations, and academic research groups, complemented with extensive literature review, informed the development of a framework for understanding the factors leading to population-wide immunity against SARS-CoV-2, in particular considering the role of vaccines. This paper presents a systems-level modeling framework to guide the development of analytical tools aimed at informing time-critical decisions to make vaccines globally and equitably accessible. Such a framework can be used for scenario planning and evaluating tradeoffs across access strategies. It highlights the diverse and powerful ways in which data can be used to evaluate future risks and strategically allocate limited resources.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (CoV-2), was declared a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 30 January 2020 and pandemic on 11 March 2020
This paper presents a systems-level modeling framework to guide the development of analytical tools aimed at informing time-critical decisions to make vaccines globally and equitably accessible
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Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (CoV-2), was declared a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 30 January 2020 and pandemic on 11 March 2020. SARS-CoV-2 is much more transmissible, though with a lower case fatality ratio, than related coronaviruses such as SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS) CoV [1,2]. Over 73 million people have been infected by and close to 1.6 million people have died from SARS-CoV-2 as of 15 December 2020 [3]. Spread of the virus is slowing down in some countries as a result of persistent public health measures (e.g., quarantines and facial coverings), the pandemic is worsening in others and continues to be a health and security threat for all.

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