Modeling framework for planning and operation of multi-modal energy systems in the case of Germany

Abstract

In order to reach the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a stepwise reduction of energy related greenhouse gas emissions as well as an increase in the share of renewable energies is necessary. For a successful realization of these changes in energy supply, an integrated view of multiple energy sectors is necessary. The coupling of different energy sectors is seen as an option to achieve the climate goals in a cost-effective way. In this paper, a methodical approach for multi-modal energy system planning and technology impact evaluation is presented. A key feature of the model is a coupled consideration of the sectors electricity, heat, fuel and mobility. The modeling framework enables system planners to optimally plan future investments in a detailed transition pathway of the energy system of a country, considering politically defined climate goals. Based on these calculations, in-depth analyses of energy markets as well as electrical transmission and distribution grids can be performed using the presented optimization models. Energy demands, conversion and storage technologies in households, the Commerce, Trade and Services (CTS) area and the industry are modeled employing a bottom-up modeling approach. The results for the optimal planning of the German energy system until 2050 show that the combination of an increased share of renewable energies and the direct electrification of heat and mobility sectors together with the use of synthetic fuels are the main drivers to achieve the climate goals in a cost-efficient way.