Abstract
Bioenergy in Mexico offers a great potential as a transition strategy for introducing new energy supply chains. However, studies which focus on wood supply chains for bioenergy generation at a national level are scarce. Hence, this paper presents a model for predicting short-term availability of woody biomass for energetic use according to two scenarios. Scenario A exhibits business as usual conditions. In scenario B, the availability of forest woody biomass is improved by an increment in the areas of sustainably managed forest. The theoretical, technical and economic potentials of forest woody biomass availability for energetic use were assessed using (a) numerical modeling, (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and (c) regression analyses Sustainability constraints and challenges such as soil degradation, terrain slope and mechanization level were considered. A regional case study was carried out, focusing on three species with the highest utilization rates (Pinus, Quercus and Abies). Setting the base at the year 2013, a forecast analysis for the year 2023 was performed. Under scenario B, for year 2023 a technical potential of 60.22 PJ was calculated, meaning an achievement of the goals set by the National Forestry Council regarding hectares under sustainable utilization. Furthermore, a net future value analysis was carried out to account the economic output during the forecasted period. Where comprehensive data was not available, the developed model was especially useful for predicting potentially available woody biomass for energy use.
Highlights
National energy production and supply have relied mainly on oil exploitation
Step 1: To measure the accuracy of the forecast model based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, the mean error (ME), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the mean square error (MSE) were estimated against different smoothing parameters (Table 3)
Considering scenario A, the theoretical and technical availability of forest woody biomass for energetic use decreased over time because of reduced production area
Summary
National energy production and supply have relied mainly on oil exploitation. With the development of renewable energy projects at a national level, analyses of the potential diversification of energy supply chains in Mexico have had a principal focus on solar power, wind energy and some biomass sources, barely considering the advantages of sustainable forest utilization of woody biomass as an input for energy systems. Sustainable forest utilization is referred as to a balance to maintain forest health, biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and the potential to meet the demand of forest products. This is accomplished by ensuring that only biomass increment can be harvested, for example. Research about the integration of the forest value chain towards forest utilization for bioenergy transformation in Mexico has been marginal
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