Modeling for sustainable groundwater management: Interdependence and potential complementarity of process-based, data-driven and system dynamics approaches

Abstract

Groundwater systems are vast natural water reservoirs used to support human water demands and ecosystem services. Various modeling approaches have been developed to help manage these complex highly-dynamic systems. This paper discusses the strengths and limitations of three modeling approaches, namely: process-based, data-driven and system dynamics modeling. For demonstration purposes, the three modeling approaches are applied to the Konya Closed Basin, a large agricultural region with semi-dry climate located in central Turkey. Process-based modeling is grounded in the theory-based representation of the governing processes but is somewhat limited by the computational effort and the difficulty of defining the required input parameters that characterize the heterogeneous aquifer system. Process-based models are shown to be powerful tools for resource management purposes provided climatic and water demand scenarios are accurately defined. Data-driven models are efficient tools for the management of groundwater resources but are highly dependent on the availability of large training data sets encompassing the spectrum of possible system responses. The high efficiency of surrogate modeling approaches makes them ideal tools for incorporation into applications such as real-time decision support systems and digital twin platforms. System dynamics modeling examines the groundwater exploitation problem within a socio-economic context that involves multiple stakeholders and their decision making. It combines groundwater flow models with socio-economics and endogenous decision rules to conduct scenario analysis and support policy development. The analyses and model demonstrations presented in this paper underscore the interconnectedness and complementarity of these three modeling approaches and the need for more integrated use of these modeling approaches for enhanced multi-sectoral management of groundwater systems.