Modeling Fluid Flow in Ship Systems for Controller Tuning Using an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Flow processes onboard ships are common in order to transport fluids like oil, gas, and water. These processes are controlled by PID controllers, acting on the regulation valves as actuators. In case of a malfunction or refitting, a PID controller needs to be re-adjusted for the optimal control of the process. To avoid experimenting on operational real systems, models are convenient alternatives. When real-time information is needed, digital twin (DT) concepts become highly valuable. The aim of this paper is to analyze and determine the optimal NARX model architecture in order to achieve a higher-accuracy model of a ship’s flow process. An artificial neural network (ANN) was used to model the process in MATLAB. The experiments were performed using a multi-start approach to prevent overtraining. To prove the thesis, statistical analysis of the experimental results was performed. Models were evaluated for generalization using mean squared error (MSE), best fit, and goodness of fit (GoF) measures on two independent datasets. The results indicate the correlation between the number of input delays and the performance of the model. A permuted k-fold cross-validation analysis was used to determine the optimal number of voltage and flow delays, thus defining the number of model inputs. Permutations of training, test, and validation datasets were applied to examine bias due to the data arrangement during training.