Modeling fires based on the results of correlation analysis

Abstract

In order to monitor and study in more detail the causes and probability of the occurrence and spread of fires in the east of Ukraine in the combat zone, mathematical modeling of the factors influencing the occurrence of fires based on linear regression was performed in this study. The initial assessment of a priori information presented in a discrete form is a time—consuming process. A large dataset with a time interval requires application of ready—made methods and solutions. By applying statistical analysis techniques and historical analogies, it becomes possible to visually and graphically evaluate the initial data. This evaluation serves as the foundation for classifying factors, which enables their division into samples for subsequent analysis and modeling.The expediency of application of correlation analysis is demonstrated by its ability to establish and illustrate the connections between fires and hostilities across different time intervals. To examine the connection between fires and the factors contributing to their occurrence, the widely used method of linear regression was applied, which is common in solving problems of ecological monitoring of the Earth.Consequently, a program code was developed to provide the implementation of the linear regression algorithm. Since a large data set requires ready—made mathematical tools with a visualization function, therefore, the Python programming language was chosen as a tool for mathematical modeling of fires in eastern Ukraine caused by ongoing active hostilities. To facilitate simulation, random variables are partitioned with a distribution ratio of 40% for testing models and 60% for training models. The visual materials in this study encompass the initial data for subsequent analysis, the outcomes of data set partitioning, and their corresponding models. The tabular data comprises quantitative assessments of test and training models, serving as a basis for decision—making regarding the degree to which prediction results align with the study's objectives. These quantitative evaluations of prediction outcomes highlight the necessity of a comprehensive initial set of factors influencing fire initiation, along with their qualitative and quantitative classification. The implementation of the mathematical algorithm confirms the ease of application of regression methods.However, when employing regression analysis to model fires without prior knowledge, it highlights the importance of conducting supplementary analysis through other established methods and synthesizing additional data. This can be achieved by utilizing interval estimates with the aid of fuzzy logic.