Modeling Financial Time Series Using State Space Models

Abstract

In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system.In this framework, empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility. We compare these results with ordinary autoregres-sive models and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude due to their ignoring the distinction between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities.