Modeling Fate and Transport of Fecal Bacteria in Surface Water

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This chapter provides a basic review of deterministic and empirical statistical modeling and their application for predicting microbiological surface water quality. The key to deterministic model development is the conceptualization of the various processes affecting fate and transport of fecal bacteria in the environment. Several different types of deterministic models have been applied to fecal bacteria in surface waters. A simplified conceptual model for fecal bacteria in surface water is presented. The chapter describes various processes that affect the fate and transport of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in surface waters and provide examples of their mathematical parameterization. The movement of bacteria from one water parcel to another occurs because of advection, diffusion, and dispersion. Advection is the movement of bacteria with water. In surface waters, velocities must be measured using flow meters to gain insight into the importance of advection. Kinetic models have been used extensively to model particle aggregation in surface waters, but have not yet been applied to the study of fecal bacteria-particle interactions in surface waters. There are four steps in the development of a statistical model. First, appropriate predictors must be selected to be used as independent variables in the model. Second, the statistical method must be chosen (e.g., multiple linear regression, partial least squares regression, random forests). Third, the model must be trained, or developed. Finally, the model must be validated using an independent data set.