Modeling exit choice behavior in airplane emergency evacuations

Abstract

Understanding how people choose exits during the emergency evacuation of an airplane is fundamental to saving more lives after air accidents. Since exit choice is difficult to observe in an emergency directly, this paper utilizes a stated preference experiment to evaluate people's exit decisions in an airplane emergency evacuation. Responses were collected through online questionnaires conducted in China and the USA. Then, conditional and nested logistic models were applied, indicating significant effects from physical factors, social influences, and individual characteristics on exit choice in virtual airplane evacuations. First, a low-level emergency and traveling alone allow people to make broader exit choices. Then, people with professional aviation experience appear less likely to choose the backmost option than common air passengers, and a high BMI index positively impacts the selection of the backmost exit. Next, herding behavior was not dominant in the airplane emergency evacuation experiment, but people were found to avoid following others in rational decisions which were made in an unreal emergency. In addition, the strong impact of a family member's location on people's direction of movement was indicated in the results. Finally, the frontmost exit and movement towards the front of the aircraft were preferred in a crisis and when people travel with family. This study provides evidence of passenger exit choice behavior in airplane emergency evacuation and suggests that the seating position of family members should be taken into account to support more efficient and safer airplane evacuations.