Modeling evacuation activities amid compound hazards: Insights from hurricane Irma in Southeast Florida

Abstract

Given the destructive nature of hurricanes in tropical regions, pre-disaster evacuation has emerged as a critical approach for hurricane preparedness. Nevertheless, the compounding effects of natural hazards and the outbreak of infectious diseases, such as Covid-19, significantly challenge hurricane evacuation management. To investigate emergency responses under compound hazards, this study develops an activity-based model to measure the evacuation behaviors of individuals, using Hurricane Irma as a case study. Four scenarios are designed, including a single hurricane hazard, Hurricane Irma compounded with a pandemic like Covid-19, Hurricane Irma compounded with flood damage to the transportation network, and a combination of all these hazards. The metropolis-hasting algorithm is utilized to generate a population with socioeconomic attributes, which is then allocated to census block groups covering Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe Counties in Florida. Datasets from multiple sources are used to measure evacuation decisions, which are subsequently simulated using MATSim. The results highlight the potential impacts of compound hazards on transportation systems, including increased congestions in scenarios involving compounded hurricanes and floods, especially between 10 a.m. and 7p.m. Moreover, a higher proportion of socially vulnerable populations is observed in scenarios involving compounded hurricanes and pandemics, particularly in the Key West area. The developed model could be further applied to measure the indirect impacts of natural hazards on transportation systems.