Abstract
AbstractThis paper uses a regional simulation of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial ionosphere together with a global atmosphere/ionosphere/plasmasphere GCM (WAM‐IPE) to forecast irregularities associated with equatorial spread F (ESF) for 1–2 hr after sunset. First, the regional simulation is initialized and forced using ionosphere state parameters derived from campaign data from the Jicamarca Radio Observatory and from empirical models. The irregularities produced by these simulations are found to be quantitatively similar to those observed. Next, the aforementioned state parameters are replaced with parameters from WAM‐IPE, and the resulting departures between the simulated and observed irregularities are noted. In one of five cases, the forecast failed to accurately predict ESF irregularities due to the late reversal of the zonal thermospheric winds. In four of five cases, significant differences between the observed and predicted prereversal enhancement (PRE) of the background vertical drifts resulted in degraded forecast accuracy. This highlights the need for improved PRE forecasting in the global‐scale model.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.