Modeling energy demand by the paper industry: an economic/engineering approach

Abstract

This paper presents a model of energy demand by the paper industry. The industry is conceptually separated into two sectors: pulp and paper production, and energy generation and conversion. The first sector includes the major pulp and paper production processes while the second includes the energy and material balances in converting primary energy sources to steam and electricity. The present model is used to evaluate important energy issues such as future energy demand, fuel substitution, and cogeneration. The base case projection results show that total energy consumption will grow much slower than paper production in the next 20 years. Specifically, steam and purchased fuel consumption are projected to increase at much lower rates than total electricity and recovered fuel consumption. The results also show that a coal conversion program based entirely on price inducement may not be effective as the industry is more inclined to switch from natural gas to oil, rather than coal.