Modeling Emissions and Ozone Air Quality Impacts of Future Scenarios for Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain States.

Abstract

This study examines air quality impacts of scenarios for energy production and use in 2030 across Colorado, northern New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Scenarios feature contrasting levels of oil and gas production and shares of electricity from coal, natural gas, and renewables. Hourly emissions are resolved for individual power plants; oil and gas emissions are basin-specific. Ozone decreased from 2011 to the 2030 baseline, with median and 90th percentile reductions in maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone across the four-state domain of 3.5 and 7.1 ppb, respectively, resulting in 200 fewer premature deaths annually. Relative to the 2030 baseline, MDA8 ozone increased in the "cheap gas" scenario, with median and 90th percentile increases of 0.1 and 1.0 ppb, and declined in a scenario with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees, with median and 90th percentile reductions of 0.2 and 1.5 ppb. Reduced coal generation lowered SO2 emissions in all future scenarios compared to 2011. GHG emissions from electricity and oil and gas production declined by 4% (CO2-equivalent) from 2011 to the 2030 baseline, increased by 10% from the 2030 baseline to the cheap gas scenario, and declined by 28% from the 2030 baseline to the GHG fees scenario.