Modeling economy-wide climate change impacts on Egypt: A case for an integrated approach

Abstract

This study looks at the role of biophysical sectors and world markets on an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on Egypt. Using the outcome from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and a global model of world food trade (the Basic Linked System; BLS) — changes in crop yields; crop water demands; water and land resource availability; and world market prices were applied to a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model of Egypt (the Standard National Model of the BLS). Modeling results consistently showed that the net effect of climate change on the macro indicator of per capita GDP was not great — regardless of the level of integration. This outcome was only realized through autonomous economic adjustments which implied significant socio-economic and structural change. Including or excluding certain biophysical sectors and world markets influenced the development path and the nature of the autonomous adjustments. The importance of a particular biophysical sector or of world markets was also dependent upon the specific climate change scenario.