Modeling ecological impacts of landscape change

Abstract

Growth and development in the Rocky Mountain West have increased employment and output at the expense of loss and fragmentation of wildlife habitats, and other environmental impacts. An Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System (ELMS) is proposed for evaluating the potential ecological and economic impacts of future landscape changes in rapidly growing areas of the Rocky Mountain West. ELMS consists of an economic model, land use change model, ecological assessment model, and policy model. The economic model uses IMPLAN and various assumptions to estimate changes in employment and output for alternative future growth rates for sectors in the study area. Future changes in employment and output are translated into land use requirements for residential housing and commercial establishments. Future changes in the extent and location of land converted from undeveloped land classes (undeveloped land zoned residential, agricultural land and private forest land) to developed land classes (residential housing and commercial establishments) are simulated by the land use change model. The ecological assessment model evaluates impacts of land use changes on potential and realized habitat for selected species. The policy model specifies alternative residential and commercial development, infrastructure expansion, and natural resource conservation policies that are incorporated in the economic and land use change models. Results from ELMS can be used to evaluate potential trade-offs between economic and ecological values associated with future growth and development. Trade-off analysis compares increases in employment and output to decreases in potential and effective habitat for the species over time for alternative futures. ELMS has the potential to improve land use planning and management in the Rocky Mountain West.