Modeling Dynamics in Land Use and Land Cover and Its Future Projection for the Amazon Biome

Abstract

The objectives were to analyze the dynamics of land use and land cover of the Amazon biome over time through spatial modeling, and project its future scenario with the Land Change Modeler (LCM) module. This analysis was based on 1985, 2014 and 2017 land cover data from the MapBiomas project, which was associated with socioeconomic explanatory variables based on the Cramer-V test. Results showed that the Forest Formation class occupied 3,844,800.75 km2 (91.20%) in 1985, and in 2014, there was a reduction to 3,452,129.25 km2 (81.89%). The pasture class had an initial area of 71,046.50 km2 (1.69%), and in 2014, there was an expressive increase to 437,670.00 km2 (10.38%). The analysis made it possible to verify that Forest Formation and Pastures were the classes that suffered the most changes, followed by the Annual and Perennial Culture and Mosaic of Agriculture and Pasture. The projected land use and coverage for 2044 suggests that there will be a reduction in Forest Formation due to a significant increase in the Pasture class. The simulations foreseen in this work are an important tool that can provide subsidies for supporting territorial planning in the region, public policies, and encouragement of best practices with a reduced impact in pasture areas.