Modeling Drivers’ Strategy When Overtaking Cyclists in the Presence of Oncoming Traffic

Abstract

Overtaking a cyclist on a two-lane rural road with oncoming traffic is a challenging task for any driver. Failing this task can lead to severe injuries or even death because of the potentially high impact speed in a possible collision. To avoid a rear-end collision with the cyclist, drivers need to make a timely and accurate decision about whether to steer and overtake the cyclist, or brake and let the oncoming traffic pass first. If this decision is delayed, for instance because the driver is distracted, neither braking nor steering may eventually keep the driver from crashing—at that point, rear-ending a cyclist may be the safest alternative for the driver. Active safety systems such as forward collision warning that help drivers being alert and avoiding collisions may be enhanced with driver models to reduce activations perceived as false positive. In this study, we developed a driver model based on logistic regression using data from a test-track experiment. The model can predict the probability and confidence of drivers braking and steering while approaching a cyclist during an overtaking, and therefore this model may improve collision warning systems. In both an in-sample and out-of-sample evaluation, the model identified drivers’ intent to overtake with high accuracy (0.99 and 0.90, respectively). The model can be integrated into a warning system that leverages the deviance of the actual driver behavior from the behavior predicted by the model to allow timely warnings without compromising driver acceptance.