Modeling drivers’ speed selection as a trade-off behavior

Abstract

This paper proposes a new model of driver-preferred speeds derived from the assumption that drivers trade-off a portion of their safety for a time gain. The risk of receiving a ticket for speeding is also considered. A trip disutility concept is selected to combine the three components of speed choice (safety, time, and enforcement). The perceived crash risk and speed enforcement are considered as speed deterrents while the perceived value of a time gain is considered as a speed enticement. According to this concept, speeds that minimize the perceived trip disutility are preferred by drivers. The modeled trade-off behavior does not have to be fully rational since it is affected by drivers’ preferences and their ability to perceive the risk. As such, the proposed framework follows the concept of bound rationality. The attractiveness of the model lies in its parameters being estimable with the observed preferred speeds and then interpretable as the factors of risk perception, the subjective value of time, and the perceived risk of speed enforcement. The proposed method may successfully supplement behavioral studies based on a driver survey. The study focuses on four-lane rural and suburban roads in Indiana, USA. The behavior of two types of drivers (trucks and cars) is modeled. The selection of test sites was such that the roads and other local characteristics varied across the studied sites while the population of drivers could be assumed as the same. The density of intersections, land development along the road, and the presence of sidewalks were the identified prominent risk perception factors. Another interesting finding is that the speed limit seems to encourage slow drivers to drive faster and fast drivers to drive slower.