Modeling disruption propagation in a complex Supply Chain

Abstract

A methodology to ascertain the impact of disruption downstream of the point of disruption is proposed. Two parameters were defined to quantify the extent of disruption in any node in the Supply Chain (SC), including the end customer. A complex SC network consisting of two sub-nets is discussed as an illustration of the methodology. Two experiments were then conducted: (i) disruptions at a single, double and triple nodes and (ii) the propagation of the disruption and its impact on end consumers throughout the simulation timeline. The results indicate that the impact of disruptions at a single, double and triple node can yield insight into their relative significance. The propagation of the disruption downstream gives a visual feel for the severity of the impact over the simulation timeline. The work discussed can be adopted by SC manufacturers to plan and monitor their SC operations.