Modeling differential car-following behavior under normal and rainy conditions: A memory-based deep learning method with attention mechanism

Abstract

In order to analyze and learn the difference in car-following behavior between normal and rainy days, we first collect car-following trajectory data of an urban elevated road on normal and rainy days by microwave radar and analyze the differences in speed, relative speed, acceleration, space headway, and time headway among data through statistics. Secondly, owing to the time-series characteristics of car-following data, we use the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network optimized by attention mechanism (AM) and sparrow search algorithm (SSA) to learn the different car-following behaviors under different weather conditions and build corresponding models (ASL-Normal, ASL-Rain, where ASL stands for AM-SSA-LSTM), respectively. Finally, the simulation test shows that the mean square error (MSE) and reciprocal of time-to-collision (RTTC) of the ASL model are better than those of LSTM and intelligent diver model (IDM), which is closer to the real data. The ASL model can better learn different driving behaviors on normal and rainy days. However, it has a higher sensitivity to weather conditions from cross test on normal and rainy data-sets which need classification training or sample diversification processing. In the car-following platoon simulation, the stability performances of two models are excellent, which can describe the basic characteristics of traffic flow on normal and rainy days. Comparing with ASL-Rain model, the convergence time of ASL-Normal is shorter, reflecting that cautious driving behavior on rainy days will reduce traffic efficiency to a certain extent. However, ASL-Normal model produces a more severe and frequent traffic oscillation within a shorter period because of aggressive driving behavior on normal days.