Modeling Diabetes Risk Factors (A Case Study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, Kenya 2016)

Thomas Mageto

doi:10.11648/j.sjams.20180601.12

Abstract

This study sought to model risk factors of diabetes (A case study of Focus Medical Center in Kiambu, Kenya) for the year 2016. We considered sample of size 181 patients and carried descriptive statistics, bivariate analysis, Chi-Square test and Hosmer and Lemeshow test. The independence test between response variable (diabetes) and predictor variables (age, obesity, alcohol, smoking and hypertension) was carried. The variables age, obesity, alcohol and hypertension were found to be statistically significant at α =0.05 level of significant. A multiple logistic regression model was fitted and the fitted regression model indicated that the predictor variables age, obesity and alcohol were statistically significant. The results of the odds ratios show that age, obesity and alcohol consumption are positively associated with diabetes. The fitted reduced multiple logistic regression model was subjected to an overall goodness-of-fit test and results indicate that there is no significant difference between the observed and predicted probability. Based on the results of this study, we recommend that special attention should be given to individuals advanced in age, consume alcohol or who are obese for screening as there is a high possibility of testing positive for diabetes for health care givers to monitor and manage the condition. Further, healthy lifestyles should be promoted among the general population and in particular, the diabetic patients to increase the chance of properly managing the condition. A further study ought to be conducted to assess treatment interventions of diabetes to ascertain the effectiveness and recommend the best medication for patients suffering from diabetes.

Highlights

General objective To model the risk factors associated with diabetes (A case study of Focus Medical Centre in Kiambu, 2016) Specific objectives (i) To determine the risk factors that are associated with diabetes (ii) To fit the multivariate logistic regression model (iii)To determine the predictive strength of fitted multivariate logistic regression model
The study results indicate that, as person ages, he or she is more susceptible to diabetes
We observe that an obese person is more susceptible to diabetes and persons who consume alcohol are more susceptible to diabetes compared to persons who does not consume alcohol

Summary

Introduction

Diabetes is a chronic disease that occurs either when the body cannot use the insulin it produces effectively or when the insulin production from the pancreas is not enough. It is characterized by the elevation of blood sugar which overtime lead to serious damage to the nerves, heart, eyes, kidneys and the blood vessels. The prevalence of diabetes in the low and middle income countries has risen faster than in the high income countries. The fast increase in obesity and diabetes cases in the low and middle income countries can be explained by the very rapid urbanization which has led to change in lifestyle in these countries

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Conclusion