Modeling dengue transmission in Singapore

Abstract

Dengue fever is a widespread epidemic that transmits between the vector mosquitoes and the host humans. It has long remained a threat to the public health for many countries since there is no effective treatment for it currently. Therefore, it is practically valuable to conduct research on the transmission of Dengue Fever virus to help combat Dengue Virus. Out of this purpose and to bridge the gap in the research of Dengue Fever, this paper took use of parameters such as susceptible humans and carrier humans to construct a differential equations model that reasonably depicts the host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission of Dengue Fever Virus. Especially, in this model, by computing out the spectral radius of the matrix FV^(-1) at the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) point, we could get the basic reproductive number of the dengue fever virus, which is of great practical importance (where the detailed interpretation of notation F and V will be given in the second chapter in this paper). Besides, we conducted empirical analysis with the data of cases of Dengue Fever in Singapore at the year of 2019 to show that our method is valid in the real world. Also, we made an extensive prediction with the data of 2022.