Modeling Daily Temperatures Via a Phenology-Based Annual Temperature Cycle Model

Abstract

High spatiotemporal resolution land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in various environment applications. However, the limitation of thermal infrared sensors and the effect of clouds and other atmospheric conditions result in discontinuous daily thermal observations of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Annual temperature cycle (ATC) models can help to supply daily continuous LSTs via limited observations, but these ATC models seldom consider the disturbance of weather conditions or the land cover change. On the other hand, spatial interpolation techniques also limit in implementation when available data in one day or several days are not able to obtain enough spatiotemporal information for LST reconstruction. The objective of this study is to propose a phenology-based ATC model (termed PATC), which takes the phenology change and local weather change into account, to reconstruct daily unscanned LSTs at an annual scale. Daily MODIS LSTs collected in 2015 were utilized to analyze the performance of PATC compared with other ATC models. Results show that PATC improved the accuracy by 1.6 and 0.5 K compared to the classic ATC model in the daytime and nighttime, respectively. Compared to the enhanced ATC model, PATC also shows better performance with higher accuracies, especially during the growing season of vegetation in the daytime. Future research may focus on an incorporation with Landsat observations and diurnal temperature cycle models to implement LST reconstruction at a diurnal scale.