Modeling Cyclist Violation Behavior at Signalized Intersection in China

Abstract

To investigate the relationship between waiting duration and cyclist violation, cyclists' street-crossing behavior was examined by modeling the waiting duration at signalized intersections. Violation waiting duration was collected by video cameras and it was assigned as censored and uncensored data to distinguish between normal crossing and violating crossing. A proportional hazard-based duration model was introduced, and variables revealing personal characteristics and traffic conditions were defined as covariates to describe the effects of internal and external factors. Empirical results show that the street-crossing behavior of cyclists was time dependent. Cyclists' crossing behavior represented positive duration dependence that the longer the waiting time elapsed the more likely cyclists would end the wait soon. The violation inclination of most cyclists increased with the increasing waiting duration but about 55% of cyclists were at high risk of violation to cross the street. About 5% of all the cyclists can obey the traffic rules after waiting for 51 seconds. The human factors and external environment played an important role in cyclists' violation behavior. Minimizing the effects of unfavorable condition in traffic planning and designing may be an effective measure to enhance traffic safety.