Modeling Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Carpinus tientaiensis, a Critically Endangered Species from China

Runan Zhao,Min Song,Yan Tang,Qianqian He,Xiaojie Chu,Zunling Zhu

doi:10.3390/f11070774

Abstract

Future climate change will have serious impacts on species survival and distribution and will likely lead to the extinction of some species classified as endangered. Carpinus tientaiensis (Betulaceae), a unique and endangered species in China, has restricted distribution and a small population, indicating an urgent need for its protection. However, research on its current distribution or the influence that climate change will have on its future survival and distribution is limited. We used a MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the current and future niches of C. tientaiensis. The current suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is small, mainly in east China, south Zhejiang and Anhui, and central and southern mountainous areas of Taiwan province. The core suitable areas are concentrated in the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains in south Zhejiang, the southern mountains of Taiwan, and the Dabie, Huangshan and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui. Among the 15 BIOCLIM variables examined, the precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) was found to be the most important factor limiting C. tientaiensis survival and distribution. Future field investigations will focus on the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains, as they may have unidentified wild C. tientaiensis communities. In the future, the Kuocang, Dapan and Tiantai mountains in east Zhejiang, and the high-altitude areas of Dabie and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui, will be suitable for C. tientaiensis ex situ conservation and cultivation. However, the suitable distribution and core suitable areas for C. tientaiensis will decrease sharply as they are susceptible to climate shocks. Moreover, the suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is predicted to move slightly north and obviously eastward. Therefore, we suggest that strengthen conservation and management efforts for C. tientaiensis in its original habitats, and actively carry out ex situ conservation and artificial breeding in botanical gardens.

Highlights

The geographical distribution of species, including plants, is closely related to the environmental conditions, and climatic factors play a decisive role in this [1]
There is some debate over the use of correlative models instead of mechanistic models to study the potential distribution of species, because some researchers argue that the correlation between the
There is some debate over the use of correlative models instead of mechanistic models to study the potential distribution of species, because some researchers argue that the correlation between the species and environment may cease to exist or may change in future decades

Summary

Introduction

The geographical distribution of species, including plants, is closely related to the environmental conditions, and climatic factors play a decisive role in this [1]. For endangered species, this may lead to extinction or the increased risk thereof [6,7]. Habitat fragmentation can have adverse effects on the survival and distribution of a species, leading to the loss of biodiversity and species extinction [8,9]. Endangered species have a small number of individuals; they have special environmental needs, and their habitats often show obvious fragmentation. It is important to evaluate the influence of the climate and other environmental factors on the habitats and distributions of endangered plants with appropriate scientific methods, to help prevent the extinction of species and preserve biodiversity

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Discussion

Conclusion