Abstract
Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection.
Highlights
Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification
We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure
We found significant differences in vulnerability between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure (Table 4)
Summary
Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification. Coastal ecosystems absorb many of these stressors through wave attenuation and protection from erosion, providing valuable ecosystem services to people and property [1,2,3,4,5]. When stressors outweigh a coastal ecosystem’s ability to attenuate them, the coastal ecosystems may become vulnerable to erosion. When coastal ecosystems are lost to erosion their ecosystem services capacity is reduced, shifting environmental stressors to an often urban, developed inland. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. Coastal ecosystems are limited in scope in urban settings they are especially important due to the large populations they serve. Coastal wetlands in New York State are scarce compared to wetlands found in other states, but they have the greatest value at just over USD$ 5,100,000 per km per year due to large coastal populations, dense infrastructure, and high property value [5]
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