Modeling Climate Change Indicates Potential Shifts in the Global Distribution of Orchardgrass

Abstract

Orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) is highly tolerant of shade, cold, and overwintering, making it an ideal species for grassland ecological restoration and livestock production. However, the genetic diversity of orchardgrass may be threatened by climate change. Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database and the Harmonized World Soil Database, we projected the current and future distribution of orchardgrass suitable areas globally. The predicted ecological thresholds for vital environmental factors were determined to be a temperature seasonality range of 411.50–1034.37 °C, a mean diurnal range of −0.88–10.69 °C, a maximum temperature of the warmest month of 22.21–35.45 °C, and precipitation of the coldest quarter of 116.56–825.40 mm. A range of AUC values from 0.914 to 0.922, indicating the accuracy of the prediction model. Our results indicate that the total area of current suitable habitats for orchardgrass was estimated to be 2133.01 × 104 km2, it is dispersed unevenly over six continents. Additionally, the suitable areas of habitats increased in higher latitudes while decreasing in lower latitudes as greenhouse gas emissions increased. Therefore, efforts should be made to save places in the southern hemisphere that are in danger of becoming unsuitable, with the possibility of using northern America, China, and Europe in the future for conservation and extensive farming.