Abstract
The consequences of climate change on food security in arid and semi-arid regions can be serious. Understanding climate change impacts on water balance is critical to assess future crop performance and develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This paper presents a climate change impact study on the water balance components of an agricultural watershed in the Mediterranean region. The restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model was used to simulate the hydrological components in the Sulcis watershed (Sardinia, Italy) for the baseline period and compared to future climate projections at the end of the 21st century. The model was forced using data from two Regional Climate Models under the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios developed at a high resolution over the European domain. River discharge data were used to calibrate and validate the SWAT+ model for the baseline period, while the future hydrological response was evaluated for the mid-century (2006–2050) and late-century (2051–2098). The model simulations indicated a future increase in temperature, decrease in precipitation, and consequently increase in potential evapotranspiration in both RCP scenarios. Results show that these changes will significantly decrease water yield, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. These results highlight how hydrological components alteration by climate change can benefit from modelling high-resolution future scenarios that are useful for planning mitigation measures in agricultural semi-arid Mediterranean regions.
Highlights
Climate and land-use change are significantly impacting water resources and altering the precipitation regime and the components of the hydrological cycle [1]
As water availability is a major determinant of crop yield, modeling climate change impacts on water balance is a prerequisite for reliable prediction of future agricultural productivity [6]
The unsatisf0a.0ct5o0ry percent of model bias (PBIAS) value (>25%) c0o.0u1ld9 be explained by bias in somRMe SinEput and consequent som0e.2i2n4correct peak flow simul0a.t1io39n during moderate rainfall ePvBeInAtsS
Summary
Climate and land-use change are significantly impacting water resources and altering the precipitation regime and the components of the hydrological cycle [1] These alterations are putting rising pressures on freshwater-related ecosystem services and, on their ability to sustain ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture production, and human water need [2]. More frequent extreme events such as droughts have had adverse effects on farmlands in vulnerable areas around the world [3] This is especially true for arid and semi-arid environments, where water shortage is a chief issue [4]. Increasing demand under unfavorable weather conditions put huge pressure on agricultural systems These circumstances call for the proactive development of sustainable adaptation strategies, which require an understanding of crop performance under projected climate change scenarios. As water availability is a major determinant of crop yield, modeling climate change impacts on water balance is a prerequisite for reliable prediction of future agricultural productivity [6]
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