Abstract
In this study, the potential climate change impacts on rice growth and rice yield under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively, are simulated using the Ceres-Rice Model based on high-quality, agricultural, experimental, meteorological and soil data, and the incorporation of future climate data generated by four Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Pearl River Delta, China. The climatic data is extracted from four Global Climate Models (GCMs) namely: The Community Atmosphere Model 4 (CAM4), The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-Hamburg 6 (ECHAM6), Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate 5 (MIROC5) and the Norwegian Earth System Model 1 (NorESM1). The modeling results show that climate change has major negative impacts on both rice growth and rice yields at all study sites. More specifically, the average of flowering durations decreases by 2.8 days (3.9 days), and the maturity date decreases by 11.0 days (14.7 days) under the 1.5 °C and (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. The yield for early mature rice and late mature rice are reduced by 292.5 kg/ha (558.9 kg/ha) and 151.8 kg/ha (380.0 kg/ha) under the 1.5 °C (2.0 °C) warming scenarios, respectively. Adjusting the planting dates of eight days later and 15 days earlier for early mature rice and late mature rice are simulated to be adaptively effective, respectively. The simulated optimum fertilizer amount is about 240 kg/ha, with different industrial fertilizer and organic matter being applied.
Highlights
It is well known that the average global temperature has continued to increase since the industrial revolution [1,2,3], with an increase by 0.87 ◦ C during the period 2006–2015, compared with the historic period 1850–1900 [4,5,6,7].The Paris Agreement requires that all signatories should hold the global average temperature increase at no more than 2.0 ◦ C above preindustrial levels, and pursue further efforts to limit this increase below 1.5 ◦ C [8,9,10]
Considering the various cultivars and agronomic management practices, this indicates that the model has a moderate high precision and the performance of the model is acceptable for simulating rice growth and rice yields
The four this indicates that the model has a moderate high precision performance of the model is models are used to extract the regional climate information, andand the the results are averaged to visualize acceptable simulating growth andDetailed rice yields
Summary
It is well known that the average global temperature has continued to increase since the industrial revolution [1,2,3], with an increase by 0.87 ◦ C during the period 2006–2015, compared with the historic period 1850–1900 (pre-industrial level) [4,5,6,7]. The Paris Agreement requires that all signatories should hold the global average temperature increase at no more than 2.0 ◦ C above preindustrial levels, and pursue further efforts to limit this increase below 1.5 ◦ C [8,9,10]. Crop yields are closely related to food security, and a reduction in yields would likely exacerbate the global food crisis profoundly [15]. Assessing the impacts of Climate Change (CC), especially for the 1.5 and
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