Modeling climate change effects on spatial distribution of wild Aegilops L. (Poaceae) toward food security management and biodiversity conservation in Iran.

Abstract

The demand for food resources is increasing quickly because human populations are growing; therefore, food security may become one of the largest human challenges of this century. Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are the most valuable plant genetic resources (PGR) for the conservation of genetic diversity in crops. However, climate change is an added pressure on biodiversity, particularly on this valuable group of plants. It is predicted that more than 50% of this group may be lost by 2055 as a result of the effects of climate change. Iran ranks high in the world in its conservation priorities for CWRs. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on Aegilops L. as important CWRs. MaxEnt was applied to predict the spatial distribution of seven Aegilops species under different climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) of 2050 and 2080. According to the findings, all species exhibited reduction or expansion responses under all of the above-mentioned climatic scenarios. However, the range change was negative for some species (i.e., Aegilops columnaris, Aegilops cylindrica, Aegilops speltoides, Aegilops tauschii [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 2.6 2050 and 2080]), and positive for others (i.e., Aegilops crassa, Aegilops triuncialis [in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080], and Aegilops kotschyi [RCP 8.5 2050 and 2080]). The results of this study emphasize the need for conservation plans for the country's genetic resources, including regular monitoring and assessment of ecological and demographic changes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:697-708. © 2021 SETAC.