Abstract
Abstract The Bras d'Or Lakes (BdOL) is a land-locked estuarine system in central Cape Breton Island. Nova Scotia, Canada. Recent outbreaks of waterborne diseases at several sites in the BdOL have decimated shellfish populations and threaten its unusual biodiversity. Assessing the potential for spread of invasive pathogens is a priority for management. A nested-grid hydrodynamic modeling system is used to simulate the three-dimensional (3D) circulation and temperature-salinity distributions for summer 1974, when currents and hydrographic measurements suitable for model calibration were made at several locations. The modeled 3D velocity fields are then used in Eulerian-Lagrangian transform to study the spatial patterns of retention and dispersion of passive particles, as a proxy for the spread of disease by water flow in the estuary. Probabilities of transfers (connectivity) among 10 sub-domains of the BdOL are calculated from the statistics of the 3D particle trajectories and portrayed in a transition matr...
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