Modeling China’s interprovincial electricity transmission under low carbon transition

Abstract

Interprovincial electricity transmission is expected to play an important role towards low carbon transition to facilitate new and renewable energy development in West China to meet the increasing electricity demand in East China. To analyze changes in interprovincial electricity transmission and transmission infrastructure construction under China’s Nationally Determined Contributions and the 2-degree target, this study develops an interprovincial electricity transmission model with multi-voltage levels and integrates it with an improved 30-province energy system model to simulate reference scenario (REF) and three low carbon scenarios from a whole energy system perspective, CP30 (emissions peak in 2030), CPE (emissions peak in advance) and C2D (2-degree target). In 2050, electricity transmission is expected to increase to 2526.5 TWh, 3299.3 TWh, 3714.2 TWh and 4002.0 TWh under the REF, CP30, CPE and C2D scenarios, respectively, and the ultrahigh-voltage transmission demand is expected to reach 595.5 GW, 843.3 GW 917.0 GW and 1198.0 GW respectively. The overall pattern of electricity transmission will become increasingly complex as long-distance and large-capacity transmission becomes more prominent. Inner Mongolia, Northwest China and Southwest China will be the major sources of electricity transmissions, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Guangdong, Central China and East China will be the major importers. Ultrahigh-voltage lines will form large-capacity and long-distance electricity transmission paths connecting the power generation bases and load centers. These findings suggest that there will be a significant increase in the demand for electricity transmission and infrastructure construction in the future and that the policies promoting ultrahigh-voltage lines development should be enhanced.