Modeling cause-of-death mortality using hierarchical Archimedean copula

Abstract

ABSTRACTStudying changes in cause-specific (or competing risks) mortality rates may provide significant insights for the insurance business as well as the pension systems, as they provide more information than the aggregate mortality data. However, the forecasting of cause-specific mortality rates requires new tools to capture the dependence among the competing causes. This paper introduces a class of hierarchical Archimedean copula (HAC) models for cause-specific mortality data. The approach extends the standard Archimedean copula models by allowing for asymmetric dependence among competing risks, while preserving closed-form expressions for mortality forecasts. Moreover, the HAC model allows for a convenient analysis of the impact of hypothetical reduction, or elimination, of mortality of one or more causes on the life expectancy. Using US cohort mortality data, we analyze the historical mortality patterns of different causes of death, provide an explanation for the ‘failure’ of the War on Cancer, and evaluate the impact on life expectancy of hypothetical scenarios where cancer mortality is reduced or eliminated. We find that accounting for longevity improvement across cohorts can alter the results found in existing studies that are focused on one single cohort.