Modeling Bridge Deterioration Using Case-based Reasoning

Abstract

Current bridge deterioration models used in bridge management systems are not successful in capturing the effects of bridge condition history on future condition, in performing “what if” analyses for different maintenance scenarios, and in accounting for the interactive effects between deterioration mechanisms of different bridge components. Moreover, these models cannot be easily updated when new data is obtained. On the other hand, bridge management systems are updated on a regular basis and thus accumulate valuable knowledge about the performance of bridges over the years. The case-based reasoning (CBR) approach could reuse this knowledge efficiently to act as a deterioration model that would overcome some of the shortcomings of current models. A new CBR system, called case-based reasoning for modeling infrastructure deterioration, was developed and utilized in building a “proof of concept” application for modeling the deterioration of concrete bridge decks using data obtained from the Canadian Province of Quebec. The performance of the CBR model showed that CBR has great potentials in predicting the future condition of infrastructure facilities.